We present a major update to the 3D coronal rope ejection (3DCORE) technique for modeling coronal mass ejection flux ropes in conjunction with an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) algorithm that is used for fitting the model to in situ magnetic field measurements. The model assumes an empirically motivated torus-like flux rope structure that expands self-similarly within the heliosphere, is influenced by a simplified interaction with the solar wind environment and carries along an embedded analytical magnetic field. The improved 3DCORE implementation allows us to generate extremely large ensemble simulations which we then use to find global best-fit model parameters using an ABC sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm. The usage of this algorithm, under some basic assumptions on the uncertainty of the magnetic field measurements, allows us to furthermore generate estimates on the uncertainty of model parameters using only a single in situ observation. We apply our model to synthetically generated measurements in order to prove the validity of our implementation for the fitting procedure. We also present a brief analysis of an event captured by Parker Solar Probe (PSP), within the scope of our model, shortly after its first fly-by of the Sun on 2018 November 12 at 0.25 AU. The presented tool set is easily extendable to the analysis of events captured by multiple spacecraft which will facilitate the study of such events.
|Journal||The Astrophysical Journal / Supplement series|
|Publication status||Submitted - 31 Aug 2020|
Weiss, A. J., Möstl, C., Amerstorfer, T., Bailey, R. L., Reiß, M., Hinterreiter, J., ... Bauer, M. (2020). Analysis of coronal mass ejection flux rope signatures using 3DCORE and approximate Bayesian Computation. Manuscript submitted for publication.