Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for detailed design support

Nowadays, building performance simulation (BPS) is still primarily used for code compliance checking in the Netherlands whilst it could provide the user already useful design information by e.g. indicating design solutions or introducing uncertainty analysis (UA) and sensitivity analysis (SA). This paper summarizes results from an ongoing research introducing UA and SA in BPS. A case study is performed based on a hypothetical building which is part of an international test method for assessing the accuracy of BPS tools with respect to various building performance parameters. SA is accomplished via a freeware tool called Simlab. This is used as a pre- and postprocessor for the BPS software VA114. The SA is based on seven different input parameters, covering different categories like uncertainties in physical and design parameters as well as in boundary conditions. The sample matrix for the different input was generated with the Latin hypercube method. Results considering energy consumption (annual heating and cooling, peak loads) and thermal comfort (weight over- and underheating hours) are compared. The paper will finish with indicating how this research will be proceeded.