Monte-carlo-simulation im baubetrieb - verteilungs- funktion für aufwandswerte bei schalarbeiten: Herleitung der verteilungsfunktion aus den ergebnissen einer expertenbefragung

The current literature uses various definitions of the concept of risk. This paper outlines the two key approaches, and a systematic structure is derived that differentiates between certainty and uncertainty on the basis of expectations. This paper concentrates on the probabilistic calculation of the total labour consumption rate and of the duration of construction projects using the practical example of reinforced-concrete works. Depending on the time of consideration and project phase, labour consumption rates may be subject to more or less significant variations. The Monte- Carlo method makes it possible to calculate distribution functions for the pre-defined output variables. Expert surveys were used to determine the distribution function that most appropriately reflects the labour consumption rates that were actually calculated for rein- forced-concrete floorshuttering works. To make the derived log-logistic distribution workable, a transformation to a polygonally approximated distribution is performed, which enables the input of the minimum and expected labour consumption rate values. A practical calculation example highlights the differences that result from the application of this new distribution function in comparison to selected triangular, beta and equidistribution functions. A comparison of these outcomes is shown for the total labour consumption rate and project duration variables.