TY - JOUR
T1 - Land-based implications of early climate actions without global net-negative emissions
AU - Hasegawa, Tomoko
AU - Fujimori, Shinichiro
AU - Frank, Stefan
AU - Humpenöder, Florian
AU - Bertram, Christoph
AU - Després, Jacques
AU - Drouet, Laurent
AU - Emmerling, Johannes
AU - Gusti, Mykola
AU - Harmsen, Mathijs
AU - Keramidas, Kimon
AU - Ochi, Yuki
AU - Oshiro, Ken
AU - Rochedo, Pedro
AU - van Ruijven, Bas
AU - Cabardos, Anique Marie
AU - Deppermann, Andre
AU - Fosse, Florian
AU - Havlik, Petr
AU - Krey, Volker
AU - Popp, Alexander
AU - Schaeffer, Roberto
AU - van Vuuren, Detlef
AU - Riahi, Keywan
N1 - Funding Information:
T.H., S. Fujimori and K.O. were supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF20202002 and JPMEERF20211001) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan and Sumitomo Foundation. T.H. was supported by the Ritsumeikan Global Innovation Research Organization (R-GIRO), Ritsumeikan University. P.R. and R.S. were supported by the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq). All authors excluding J.D., K.K. and F.F. received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 821471 (ENGAGE).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
PY - 2021/12
Y1 - 2021/12
N2 - Delaying climate mitigation action and allowing a temporary overshoot of temperature targets require large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in the second half of this century that may induce adverse side effects on land, food and ecosystems. Meanwhile, meeting climate goals without global net-negative emissions inevitably needs early and rapid emission reduction measures, which also brings challenges in the near term. Here we identify the implications for land-use and food systems of scenarios that do not depend on land-based CDR technologies. We find that early climate action has multiple benefits and trade-offs, and avoids the need for drastic (mitigation-induced) shifts in land use in the long term. Further long-term benefits are lower food prices, reduced risk of hunger and lower demand for irrigation water. Simultaneously, however, near-term mitigation pressures in the agriculture, forest and land-use sector and the required land area for energy crops increase, resulting in additional risk of food insecurity.
AB - Delaying climate mitigation action and allowing a temporary overshoot of temperature targets require large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in the second half of this century that may induce adverse side effects on land, food and ecosystems. Meanwhile, meeting climate goals without global net-negative emissions inevitably needs early and rapid emission reduction measures, which also brings challenges in the near term. Here we identify the implications for land-use and food systems of scenarios that do not depend on land-based CDR technologies. We find that early climate action has multiple benefits and trade-offs, and avoids the need for drastic (mitigation-induced) shifts in land use in the long term. Further long-term benefits are lower food prices, reduced risk of hunger and lower demand for irrigation water. Simultaneously, however, near-term mitigation pressures in the agriculture, forest and land-use sector and the required land area for energy crops increase, resulting in additional risk of food insecurity.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85116517668&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1038/s41893-021-00772-w
DO - 10.1038/s41893-021-00772-w
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85116517668
SN - 2398-9629
VL - 4
SP - 1052
EP - 1059
JO - Nature Sustainability
JF - Nature Sustainability
IS - 12
ER -
