Inclusive climate change mitigation and food security policy under 1.5C climate goal

Shinichiro Fujimori*, Tomoko Hasegawa, Joeri Rogelj, Xuanming Su, Petr Havlik, Volker Krey, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Keywan Riahi

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Climate change mitigation to limit warming to 1.5C or well below 2C, as suggested by the Paris Agreement, can rely on large-scale deployment of land-related measures (e.g. afforestation, or bioenergy production). This can increase food prices, and hence raises food security concerns. Here we show how an inclusive policy design can avoid these adverse side-effects. Food-security support through international aid, bioenergy tax, or domestic reallocation of income can shield impoverished and vulnerable people from the additional risk of hunger that would be caused by the economic effects of policies narrowly focussing on climate objectives only. In the absence of such support, 35% more people might be at risk of hunger by 2050 (i.e. 84 million additional people) in a 2C-consistent scenario. The additional global welfare changes due to inclusive climate policies are small (0.1%) compared to the total climate mitigation cost (3.7% welfare loss), and the financial costs of international aid amount to about half a percent of high-income countries' GDP. This implies that climate policy should treat this issue carefully. Although there are challenges to implement food policies, options exist to avoid the food security concerns often linked to climate mitigation.

Original languageEnglish
Article number074033
JournalEnvironmental Research Letters
Volume13
Issue number7
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 6 Jul 2018

Keywords

  • 1.5 and 2 degree goal
  • Climate change mitigation
  • Food security
  • Inclusive policy

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
  • Environmental Science(all)
  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

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    Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Rogelj, J., Su, X., Havlik, P., Krey, V., ... Riahi, K. (2018). Inclusive climate change mitigation and food security policy under 1.5C climate goal. Environmental Research Letters, 13(7), [074033]. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aad0f7