TY - JOUR
T1 - Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot
AU - Riahi, Keywan
AU - Bertram, Christoph
AU - Huppmann, Daniel
AU - Rogelj, Joeri
AU - Bosetti, Valentina
AU - Cabardos, Anique Marie
AU - Deppermann, Andre
AU - Drouet, Laurent
AU - Frank, Stefan
AU - Fricko, Oliver
AU - Fujimori, Shinichiro
AU - Harmsen, Mathijs
AU - Hasegawa, Tomoko
AU - Krey, Volker
AU - Luderer, Gunnar
AU - Paroussos, Leonidas
AU - Schaeffer, Roberto
AU - Weitzel, Matthias
AU - van der Zwaan, Bob
AU - Vrontisi, Zoi
AU - Longa, Francesco Dalla
AU - Després, Jacques
AU - Fosse, Florian
AU - Fragkiadakis, Kostas
AU - Gusti, Mykola
AU - Humpenöder, Florian
AU - Keramidas, Kimon
AU - Kishimoto, Paul
AU - Kriegler, Elmar
AU - Meinshausen, Malte
AU - Nogueira, Larissa P.
AU - Oshiro, Ken
AU - Popp, Alexander
AU - Rochedo, Pedro R.R.
AU - Ünlü, Gamze
AU - van Ruijven, Bas
AU - Takakura, Junya
AU - Tavoni, Massimo
AU - van Vuuren, Detlef
AU - Zakeri, Behnam
N1 - Funding Information:
S. Fujimori, T.H., J.T. and K.O. are supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF20202002, JPMEERF20211001) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan. S. Fujimori and T.H are further supported by the Sumitomo Foundation. K.R., C.B., D.H., J.R., V.B., A.C., A.D., L.D., S. Frank, O.F., M.H., V.K., G.L., L.P., R.S., Z.V., K.F., M.G., F.H., P.K., E.K., A.P., P.R.R.R., G.Ü., B.R., J.T., M.T., D.V. and B.Z. received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 821471 (ENGAGE).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
PY - 2021/12
Y1 - 2021/12
N2 - Global emissions scenarios play a critical role in the assessment of strategies to mitigate climate change. The current scenarios, however, are criticized because they feature strategies with pronounced overshoot of the global temperature goal, requiring a long-term repair phase to draw temperatures down again through net-negative emissions. Some impacts might not be reversible. Hence, we explore a new set of net-zero CO2 emissions scenarios with limited overshoot. We show that upfront investments are needed in the near term for limiting temperature overshoot but that these would bring long-term economic gains. Our study further identifies alternative configurations of net-zero CO2 emissions systems and the roles of different sectors and regions for balancing sources and sinks. Even without net-negative emissions, CO2 removal is important for accelerating near-term reductions and for providing an anthropogenic sink that can offset the residual emissions in sectors that are hard to abate.
AB - Global emissions scenarios play a critical role in the assessment of strategies to mitigate climate change. The current scenarios, however, are criticized because they feature strategies with pronounced overshoot of the global temperature goal, requiring a long-term repair phase to draw temperatures down again through net-negative emissions. Some impacts might not be reversible. Hence, we explore a new set of net-zero CO2 emissions scenarios with limited overshoot. We show that upfront investments are needed in the near term for limiting temperature overshoot but that these would bring long-term economic gains. Our study further identifies alternative configurations of net-zero CO2 emissions systems and the roles of different sectors and regions for balancing sources and sinks. Even without net-negative emissions, CO2 removal is important for accelerating near-term reductions and for providing an anthropogenic sink that can offset the residual emissions in sectors that are hard to abate.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85120081385&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1038/s41558-021-01215-2
DO - 10.1038/s41558-021-01215-2
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85120081385
SN - 1758-678X
VL - 11
SP - 1063
EP - 1069
JO - Nature Climate Change
JF - Nature Climate Change
IS - 12
ER -
