Advanced modelling of generation adequacy in Europe

The rapid change of power generation within Europe followed by upcoming tasks resulting from the electricity regulation guideline forces Transmission System Operators (TSOs) to establish and improve existing generation adequacy calculations on a national and pan-European level. With these processes, TSOs shall be able to forecast their installed production units within a defined time-period and assess if installed generation and import capabilities can cover forecasted demand. Over the past, the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) set up a couple of processes, which serve the European TSOs to assess generation adequacy. The current existing processes cover time horizons from one week until 20 years ahead. This paper provides an overview of the current existing adequacy processes in Europe, followed by the distinction of probabilistic and deterministic assessments. As there are several upcoming challenges for TSOs resulting from the new electricity regulation guidelines [10], TSOs need to establish their national adequacy assessments. Also current existing European assessments need to be further developed and fine-tuned. Various activities in regards of model development are currently ongoing throughout Europe. As a starting point for future work, this paper serves as an introduction into this important and current topic and will be followed by future research activity.