Abstract
Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5 °C describe major transformations in energy supply and ever-rising energy demand. Here, we provide a contrasting perspective by developing a narrative of future change based on observable trends that results in low energy demand. We describe and quantify changes in activity levels and energy intensity in the global North and global South for all major energy services. We project that global final energy demand by 2050 reduces to 245 EJ, around 40% lower than today, despite rises in population, income and activity. Using an integrated assessment modelling framework, we show how changes in the quantity and type of energy services drive structural change in intermediate and upstream supply sectors (energy and land use). Down-sizing the global energy system dramatically improves the feasibility of a low-carbon supply-side transformation. Our scenario meets the 1.5 °C climate target as well as many sustainable development goals, without relying on negative emission technologies.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 515-527 |
| Number of pages | 13 |
| Journal | Nature Energy |
| Volume | 3 |
| Issue number | 6 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 1 Jun 2018 |
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ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Electronic, Optical and Magnetic Materials
- Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
- Fuel Technology
- Energy Engineering and Power Technology
Cite this
A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °c target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies. / Grubler, Arnulf; Wilson, Charlie; Bento, Nuno; Boza-Kiss, Benigna; Krey, Volker; McCollum, David L.; Rao, Narasimha D.; Riahi, Keywan; Rogelj, Joeri; De Stercke, Simon; Cullen, Jonathan; Frank, Stefan; Fricko, Oliver; Guo, Fei; Gidden, Matt; Havlík, Petr; Huppmann, Daniel; Kiesewetter, Gregor; Rafaj, Peter; Schoepp, Wolfgang; Valin, Hugo.
In: Nature Energy, Vol. 3, No. 6, 01.06.2018, p. 515-527.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer-review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °c target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies
AU - Grubler, Arnulf
AU - Wilson, Charlie
AU - Bento, Nuno
AU - Boza-Kiss, Benigna
AU - Krey, Volker
AU - McCollum, David L.
AU - Rao, Narasimha D.
AU - Riahi, Keywan
AU - Rogelj, Joeri
AU - De Stercke, Simon
AU - Cullen, Jonathan
AU - Frank, Stefan
AU - Fricko, Oliver
AU - Guo, Fei
AU - Gidden, Matt
AU - Havlík, Petr
AU - Huppmann, Daniel
AU - Kiesewetter, Gregor
AU - Rafaj, Peter
AU - Schoepp, Wolfgang
AU - Valin, Hugo
PY - 2018/6/1
Y1 - 2018/6/1
N2 - Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5 °C describe major transformations in energy supply and ever-rising energy demand. Here, we provide a contrasting perspective by developing a narrative of future change based on observable trends that results in low energy demand. We describe and quantify changes in activity levels and energy intensity in the global North and global South for all major energy services. We project that global final energy demand by 2050 reduces to 245 EJ, around 40% lower than today, despite rises in population, income and activity. Using an integrated assessment modelling framework, we show how changes in the quantity and type of energy services drive structural change in intermediate and upstream supply sectors (energy and land use). Down-sizing the global energy system dramatically improves the feasibility of a low-carbon supply-side transformation. Our scenario meets the 1.5 °C climate target as well as many sustainable development goals, without relying on negative emission technologies.
AB - Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5 °C describe major transformations in energy supply and ever-rising energy demand. Here, we provide a contrasting perspective by developing a narrative of future change based on observable trends that results in low energy demand. We describe and quantify changes in activity levels and energy intensity in the global North and global South for all major energy services. We project that global final energy demand by 2050 reduces to 245 EJ, around 40% lower than today, despite rises in population, income and activity. Using an integrated assessment modelling framework, we show how changes in the quantity and type of energy services drive structural change in intermediate and upstream supply sectors (energy and land use). Down-sizing the global energy system dramatically improves the feasibility of a low-carbon supply-side transformation. Our scenario meets the 1.5 °C climate target as well as many sustainable development goals, without relying on negative emission technologies.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85048251290&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1038/s41560-018-0172-6
DO - 10.1038/s41560-018-0172-6
M3 - Article
VL - 3
SP - 515
EP - 527
JO - Nature Energy
JF - Nature Energy
SN - 2058-7546
IS - 6
ER -