TY - JOUR
T1 - Energy system developments and investments in the decisive decade for the Paris Agreement goals
AU - Bertram, Christoph
AU - Riahi, Keywan
AU - Hilaire, Jérôme
AU - Bosetti, Valentina
AU - Drouet, Laurent
AU - Fricko, Oliver
AU - Malik, Aman
AU - Nogueira, Larissa Pupo
AU - Van Der Zwaan, Bob
AU - Van Ruijven, Bas
AU - Van Vuuren, Detlef
AU - Weitzel, Matthias
AU - Longa, Francesco Dalla
AU - De Boer, Harmen Sytze
AU - Emmerling, Johannes
AU - Fosse, Florian
AU - Fragkiadakis, Kostas
AU - Harmsen, Mathijs
AU - Keramidas, Kimon
AU - Kishimoto, Paul Natsuo
AU - Kriegler, Elmar
AU - Krey, Volker
AU - Paroussos, Leonidas
AU - Saygin, Deger
AU - Vrontisi, Zoi
AU - Luderer, Gunnar
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
PY - 2021/7
Y1 - 2021/7
N2 - The Paris Agreement does not only stipulate to limit the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C, it also calls for 'making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions'. Consequently, there is an urgent need to understand the implications of climate targets for energy systems and quantify the associated investment requirements in the coming decade. A meaningful analysis must however consider the near-term mitigation requirements to avoid the overshoot of a temperature goal. It must also include the recently observed fast technological progress in key mitigation options. Here, we use a new and unique scenario ensemble that limit peak warming by construction and that stems from seven up-to-date integrated assessment models. This allows us to study the near-term implications of different limits to peak temperature increase under a consistent and up-to-date set of assumptions. We find that ambitious immediate action allows for limiting median warming outcomes to well below 2 °C in all models. By contrast, current nationally determined contributions for 2030 would add around 0.2 °C of peak warming, leading to an unavoidable transgression of 1.5 °C in all models, and 2 °C in some. In contrast to the incremental changes as foreseen by current plans, ambitious peak warming targets require decisive emission cuts until 2030, with the most substantial contribution to decarbonization coming from the power sector. Therefore, investments into low-carbon power generation need to increase beyond current levels to meet the Paris goals, especially for solar and wind technologies and related system enhancements for electricity transmission, distribution and storage. Estimates on absolute investment levels, up-scaling of other low-carbon power generation technologies and investment shares in less ambitious scenarios vary considerably across models. In scenarios limiting peak warming to below 2 °C, while coal is phased out quickly, oil and gas are still being used significantly until 2030, albeit at lower than current levels. This requires continued investments into existing oil and gas infrastructure, but investments into new fields in such scenarios might not be needed. The results show that credible and effective policy action is essential for ensuring efficient allocation of investments aligned with medium-term climate targets.
AB - The Paris Agreement does not only stipulate to limit the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C, it also calls for 'making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions'. Consequently, there is an urgent need to understand the implications of climate targets for energy systems and quantify the associated investment requirements in the coming decade. A meaningful analysis must however consider the near-term mitigation requirements to avoid the overshoot of a temperature goal. It must also include the recently observed fast technological progress in key mitigation options. Here, we use a new and unique scenario ensemble that limit peak warming by construction and that stems from seven up-to-date integrated assessment models. This allows us to study the near-term implications of different limits to peak temperature increase under a consistent and up-to-date set of assumptions. We find that ambitious immediate action allows for limiting median warming outcomes to well below 2 °C in all models. By contrast, current nationally determined contributions for 2030 would add around 0.2 °C of peak warming, leading to an unavoidable transgression of 1.5 °C in all models, and 2 °C in some. In contrast to the incremental changes as foreseen by current plans, ambitious peak warming targets require decisive emission cuts until 2030, with the most substantial contribution to decarbonization coming from the power sector. Therefore, investments into low-carbon power generation need to increase beyond current levels to meet the Paris goals, especially for solar and wind technologies and related system enhancements for electricity transmission, distribution and storage. Estimates on absolute investment levels, up-scaling of other low-carbon power generation technologies and investment shares in less ambitious scenarios vary considerably across models. In scenarios limiting peak warming to below 2 °C, while coal is phased out quickly, oil and gas are still being used significantly until 2030, albeit at lower than current levels. This requires continued investments into existing oil and gas infrastructure, but investments into new fields in such scenarios might not be needed. The results show that credible and effective policy action is essential for ensuring efficient allocation of investments aligned with medium-term climate targets.
KW - climate policy
KW - energy investments
KW - integrated assessment modelling
KW - mitigation policies
KW - Paris Agreement
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85110462061&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1088/1748-9326/ac09ae
DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/ac09ae
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85110462061
SN - 1748-9318
VL - 16
JO - Environmental Research Letters
JF - Environmental Research Letters
IS - 7
M1 - 074020
ER -