Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic caused radical temporary breaks with past energy use trends. How post-pandemic recovery will impact the longer-term energy transition is unclear. Here we present a set of global COVID-19 shock-and-recovery scenarios that systematically explore the effect of demand changes persisting. Our pathways project final energy demand reductions of 1–36 EJ yr−1 by 2025 and cumulative CO2 emission reductions of 14–45 GtCO2 by 2030. Uncertainty ranges depend on the depth and duration of the economic downturn and demand-side changes. Recovering from the pandemic with energy-efficient practices embedded in new patterns of travel, work, consumption and production reduces climate mitigation challenges. A low energy demand recovery reduces carbon prices for a 1.5 °C-consistent pathway by 19%, lowers energy supply investments until 2030 by US$1.8 trillion and softens the pressure to rapidly upscale renewable energy technologies.
Originalsprache | englisch |
---|---|
Seiten (von - bis) | 1114-1123 |
Seitenumfang | 10 |
Fachzeitschrift | Nature Energy |
Jahrgang | 6 |
Ausgabenummer | 12 |
DOIs | |
Publikationsstatus | Veröffentlicht - Dez. 2021 |
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Elektronische, optische und magnetische Materialien
- Erneuerbare Energien, Nachhaltigkeit und Umwelt
- Feuerungstechnik
- Energieanlagenbau und Kraftwerkstechnik