A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation

Shinichiro Fujimori*, Tomoko Hasegawa, Volker Krey, Keywan Riahi, Christoph Bertram, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Valentina Bosetti, Jessica Callen, Jacques Després, Jonathan Doelman, Laurent Drouet, Johannes Emmerling, Stefan Frank, Oliver Fricko, Petr Havlik, Florian Humpenöder, Jason F.L. Koopman, Hans van Meijl, Yuki Ochi, Alexander PoppAndreas Schmitz, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Detlef van Vuuren

*Korrespondierende/r Autor/in für diese Arbeit

Publikation: Beitrag in einer FachzeitschriftArtikel

Abstract

Holding the global increase in temperature caused by climate change well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, the goal affirmed by the Paris Agreement, is a major societal challenge. Meanwhile, food security is a high-priority area in the UN Sustainable Development Goals, which could potentially be adversely affected by stringent climate mitigation. Here we show the potential negative trade-offs between food security and climate mitigation using a multi-model comparison exercise. We find that carelessly designed climate mitigation policies could increase the number of people at risk of hunger by 160 million in 2050. Avoiding these adverse side effects would entail a cost of about 0.18% of global gross domestic product in 2050. It should be noted that direct impacts of climate change on yields were not assessed and that the direct benefits from mitigation in terms of avoided yield losses could be substantial, further reducing the above cost. Although results vary across models and model implementations, the qualitative implications are robust and call for careful design of climate mitigation policies taking into account agriculture and land prices.

Originalspracheenglisch
Seiten (von - bis)386-396
Seitenumfang11
FachzeitschriftNature Sustainability
Jahrgang2
Ausgabenummer5
DOIs
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 1 Mai 2019

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • !!Global and Planetary Change
  • !!Food Science
  • !!Geography, Planning and Development
  • Ökologie
  • !!Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
  • Urban studies
  • !!Nature and Landscape Conservation
  • !!Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law

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