A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °c target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies

Arnulf Grubler, Charlie Wilson, Nuno Bento, Benigna Boza-Kiss, Volker Krey, David L. McCollum, Narasimha D. Rao, Keywan Riahi, Joeri Rogelj, Simon De Stercke, Jonathan Cullen, Stefan Frank, Oliver Fricko, Fei Guo, Matt Gidden, Petr Havlík, Daniel Huppmann, Gregor Kiesewetter, Peter Rafaj, Wolfgang Schoepp & 1 Sonstige Hugo Valin

Publikation: Beitrag in einer FachzeitschriftArtikelForschungBegutachtung

Abstract

Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5 °C describe major transformations in energy supply and ever-rising energy demand. Here, we provide a contrasting perspective by developing a narrative of future change based on observable trends that results in low energy demand. We describe and quantify changes in activity levels and energy intensity in the global North and global South for all major energy services. We project that global final energy demand by 2050 reduces to 245 EJ, around 40% lower than today, despite rises in population, income and activity. Using an integrated assessment modelling framework, we show how changes in the quantity and type of energy services drive structural change in intermediate and upstream supply sectors (energy and land use). Down-sizing the global energy system dramatically improves the feasibility of a low-carbon supply-side transformation. Our scenario meets the 1.5 °C climate target as well as many sustainable development goals, without relying on negative emission technologies.

Spracheenglisch
Seiten515-527
Seitenumfang13
FachzeitschriftNature Energy
Jahrgang3
Ausgabennummer6
DOIs
StatusVeröffentlicht - 1 Jun 2018

Fingerprint

Global warming
Land use
Sustainable development
Carbon

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • !!Electronic, Optical and Magnetic Materials
  • !!Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
  • !!Fuel Technology
  • !!Energy Engineering and Power Technology

Dies zitieren

A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °c target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies. / Grubler, Arnulf; Wilson, Charlie; Bento, Nuno; Boza-Kiss, Benigna; Krey, Volker; McCollum, David L.; Rao, Narasimha D.; Riahi, Keywan; Rogelj, Joeri; De Stercke, Simon; Cullen, Jonathan; Frank, Stefan; Fricko, Oliver; Guo, Fei; Gidden, Matt; Havlík, Petr; Huppmann, Daniel; Kiesewetter, Gregor; Rafaj, Peter; Schoepp, Wolfgang; Valin, Hugo.

in: Nature Energy, Jahrgang 3, Nr. 6, 01.06.2018, S. 515-527.

Publikation: Beitrag in einer FachzeitschriftArtikelForschungBegutachtung

Grubler, A, Wilson, C, Bento, N, Boza-Kiss, B, Krey, V, McCollum, DL, Rao, ND, Riahi, K, Rogelj, J, De Stercke, S, Cullen, J, Frank, S, Fricko, O, Guo, F, Gidden, M, Havlík, P, Huppmann, D, Kiesewetter, G, Rafaj, P, Schoepp, W & Valin, H 2018, 'A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °c target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies', Nature Energy, Jg. 3, Nr. 6, S. 515-527. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0172-6
Grubler, Arnulf ; Wilson, Charlie ; Bento, Nuno ; Boza-Kiss, Benigna ; Krey, Volker ; McCollum, David L. ; Rao, Narasimha D. ; Riahi, Keywan ; Rogelj, Joeri ; De Stercke, Simon ; Cullen, Jonathan ; Frank, Stefan ; Fricko, Oliver ; Guo, Fei ; Gidden, Matt ; Havlík, Petr ; Huppmann, Daniel ; Kiesewetter, Gregor ; Rafaj, Peter ; Schoepp, Wolfgang ; Valin, Hugo. / A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °c target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies. in: Nature Energy. 2018 ; Jahrgang 3, Nr. 6. S. 515-527.
@article{29d8c09287904454bbd63667076cb025,
title = "A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °c target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies",
abstract = "Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5 °C describe major transformations in energy supply and ever-rising energy demand. Here, we provide a contrasting perspective by developing a narrative of future change based on observable trends that results in low energy demand. We describe and quantify changes in activity levels and energy intensity in the global North and global South for all major energy services. We project that global final energy demand by 2050 reduces to 245 EJ, around 40{\%} lower than today, despite rises in population, income and activity. Using an integrated assessment modelling framework, we show how changes in the quantity and type of energy services drive structural change in intermediate and upstream supply sectors (energy and land use). Down-sizing the global energy system dramatically improves the feasibility of a low-carbon supply-side transformation. Our scenario meets the 1.5 °C climate target as well as many sustainable development goals, without relying on negative emission technologies.",
author = "Arnulf Grubler and Charlie Wilson and Nuno Bento and Benigna Boza-Kiss and Volker Krey and McCollum, {David L.} and Rao, {Narasimha D.} and Keywan Riahi and Joeri Rogelj and {De Stercke}, Simon and Jonathan Cullen and Stefan Frank and Oliver Fricko and Fei Guo and Matt Gidden and Petr Havl{\'i}k and Daniel Huppmann and Gregor Kiesewetter and Peter Rafaj and Wolfgang Schoepp and Hugo Valin",
year = "2018",
month = "6",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1038/s41560-018-0172-6",
language = "English",
volume = "3",
pages = "515--527",
journal = "Nature Energy",
issn = "2058-7546",
publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",
number = "6",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °c target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies

AU - Grubler, Arnulf

AU - Wilson, Charlie

AU - Bento, Nuno

AU - Boza-Kiss, Benigna

AU - Krey, Volker

AU - McCollum, David L.

AU - Rao, Narasimha D.

AU - Riahi, Keywan

AU - Rogelj, Joeri

AU - De Stercke, Simon

AU - Cullen, Jonathan

AU - Frank, Stefan

AU - Fricko, Oliver

AU - Guo, Fei

AU - Gidden, Matt

AU - Havlík, Petr

AU - Huppmann, Daniel

AU - Kiesewetter, Gregor

AU - Rafaj, Peter

AU - Schoepp, Wolfgang

AU - Valin, Hugo

PY - 2018/6/1

Y1 - 2018/6/1

N2 - Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5 °C describe major transformations in energy supply and ever-rising energy demand. Here, we provide a contrasting perspective by developing a narrative of future change based on observable trends that results in low energy demand. We describe and quantify changes in activity levels and energy intensity in the global North and global South for all major energy services. We project that global final energy demand by 2050 reduces to 245 EJ, around 40% lower than today, despite rises in population, income and activity. Using an integrated assessment modelling framework, we show how changes in the quantity and type of energy services drive structural change in intermediate and upstream supply sectors (energy and land use). Down-sizing the global energy system dramatically improves the feasibility of a low-carbon supply-side transformation. Our scenario meets the 1.5 °C climate target as well as many sustainable development goals, without relying on negative emission technologies.

AB - Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5 °C describe major transformations in energy supply and ever-rising energy demand. Here, we provide a contrasting perspective by developing a narrative of future change based on observable trends that results in low energy demand. We describe and quantify changes in activity levels and energy intensity in the global North and global South for all major energy services. We project that global final energy demand by 2050 reduces to 245 EJ, around 40% lower than today, despite rises in population, income and activity. Using an integrated assessment modelling framework, we show how changes in the quantity and type of energy services drive structural change in intermediate and upstream supply sectors (energy and land use). Down-sizing the global energy system dramatically improves the feasibility of a low-carbon supply-side transformation. Our scenario meets the 1.5 °C climate target as well as many sustainable development goals, without relying on negative emission technologies.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85048251290&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1038/s41560-018-0172-6

DO - 10.1038/s41560-018-0172-6

M3 - Article

VL - 3

SP - 515

EP - 527

JO - Nature Energy

T2 - Nature Energy

JF - Nature Energy

SN - 2058-7546

IS - 6

ER -